Kurdistan face Mauritania in the International, May 15, 2012 — and the model calls it tight: 45% home, 32% draw, 24% away. Over their last five, Kurdistan collected 0/15 points to Mauritania's 1/15. A tighter game is expected: Over 2.5 sits at just 49%, with BTTS at 47%. Remember: these are probabilities, not certainties — a home win is the lean, never a lock. 18+, gamble responsibly.