Analysis Holstein Kiel – St Pauli (Bundesliga)

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Bundesliga · April 12, 2025

Holstein Kiel

1:2

St Pauli

1X2 prediction

confidence 54/100

✓ correct

31%

29%

40%

1 31%X 29%2 40%

⚡ Value detected on 1 (edge +6.3% vs market)

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

BTTS yes

52%

Expected goals

1.2191 - 1.2962

More markets

Double chance

1X (home/draw)60%

12 (home/away)71%

X2 (draw/away)69%

Goals (Over/Under)

Over 1.573%

Over 2.546%

Over 3.525%

Clean sheet

Holstein Kiel27%

St Pauli30%

Why this prediction?

Attaque vs défense

Holstein Kiel attaque 0.92 face à une défense 0.83 ; St Pauli attaque 0.62 face à 1.46.

Buts attendus (λ)

1.2191 - 1.2962

Forme (5 derniers, pts)

Holstein Kiel 5/15 · St Pauli 5/15

Accord avec le marché

Modèle aligné sur les cotes (divergence 0.0053).

Strengths — Holstein Kiel: att 0.92 / def 1.46 · St Pauli: att 0.62 / def 0.83

Recent form (last 5)

Holstein Kiel

WDLLD

St Pauli

LDWLD

Market odds

football-data — 3.59 / 3.5 / 2.16

Likely scores

1-1 · 14.1%

0-0 · 9.4%

0-1 · 9.2%

1-0 · 8.6%

1-2 · 8.3%

Head-to-head

0Holstein Kiel

0draws

1St Pauli

1 meetings

Avg goals · 4.0

BTTS yes · 100%

Over 2.5 · 100%

Nov 29, 24St Pauli3-1Holstein Kiel

ℹ️ H2H has weak real predictive power (small sample) — the model weights it lightly.

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