Analysis Montpellier – Le Havre (Ligue 1)

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Ligue 1 · April 06, 2025

Montpellier

0:2

Le Havre

1X2 prediction

confidence 54/100

✓ correct

32%

28%

40%

1 32%X 28%2 40%

⚡ Value detected on 2 (edge +13.4% vs market)

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

BTTS yes

55%

Expected goals

1.1328 - 1.6126

More markets

Double chance

1X (home/draw)60%

12 (home/away)72%

X2 (draw/away)68%

Goals (Over/Under)

Over 1.577%

Over 2.552%

Over 3.530%

Clean sheet

Montpellier20%

Le Havre32%

Why this prediction?

Attaque vs défense

Montpellier attaque 0.53 face à une défense 1.38 ; Le Havre attaque 0.84 face à 1.38.

Buts attendus (λ)

1.1328 - 1.6126

Forme (5 derniers, pts)

Montpellier 0/15 · Le Havre 7/15

Accord avec le marché

Modèle aligné sur les cotes (divergence 0.0166).

Strengths — Montpellier: att 0.53 / def 1.38 · Le Havre: att 0.84 / def 1.38

Recent form (last 5)

Montpellier

LLLLL

Le Havre

LWDLW

Market odds

football-data — 2.58 / 3.44 / 2.87

Likely scores

1-1 · 12.9%

1-2 · 9.5%

0-1 · 9.2%

0-2 · 8.3%

0-0 · 7.6%

Head-to-head

1Montpellier

1draws

1Le Havre

3 meetings

Avg goals · 2.3

BTTS yes · 33%

Over 2.5 · 33%

Nov 03, 24Le Havre1-0Montpellier

Mar 31, 24Le Havre0-2Montpellier

Aug 13, 23Montpellier2-2Le Havre

ℹ️ H2H has weak real predictive power (small sample) — the model weights it lightly.

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