Predify
Primera Nacional · July 17, 2026 · 18:00
1X2 prediction
confidence 54/100
actual X
39%
32%
28%
1 39%X 32%2 28%
⚡ Value detected on 1 (edge +18.8% vs market)
Optimal stake (Kelly)
Value on Deportivo Maipu @ 2.95 · edge 18.8%
Recommended stake
2.1
2.1% of bankroll (¼ Kelly)
Full Kelly
8.4%
We use ¼ (2.1%)
Kelly sizes stakes by your edge; we use ¼ Kelly to cut variance. Indicative only — never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
BTTS yes
39%
Expected goals
1.328 - 0.7221
More markets
Double chance
1X (home/draw)72%
12 (home/away)68%
X2 (draw/away)61%
Goals (Over/Under)
Over 1.562%
Over 2.534%
Over 3.515%
Clean sheet
Deportivo Maipu49%
San Martin Tucuman27%
Why this prediction?
Attack vs defense
Deportivo Maipu attacks 1.35 against a 0.84 defense; San Martin Tucuman attacks 0.99 against 0.98.
Expected goals (λ)
1.328 - 0.7221
Form (last 5, pts)
Deportivo Maipu 7/15 · San Martin Tucuman 8/15
Market agreement
⚠ Notable divergence from the market (0.0341) — caution.
Strengths — Deportivo Maipu: att 1.35 / def 0.98 · San Martin Tucuman: att 0.99 / def 0.84
Recent form (last 5)
Deportivo MaipuLLDWW
San Martin TucumanDLDWW
Market odds
consensus — 2.953333333333333 / 2.745 / 2.600000000000001
Likely scores
1-0 · 15.9%
0-0 · 14.1%
1-1 · 13.6%
2-0 · 11.3%
2-1 · 8.2%
Head-to-head
0Deportivo Maipu
1draws
2San Martin Tucuman
3 meetings
Avg goals · 2.7
BTTS yes · 67%
Over 2.5 · 67%
Mar 01, 26San Martin Tucuman2-2Deportivo Maipu
Aug 21, 25San Martin Tucuman2-1Deportivo Maipu
Mar 30, 25Deportivo Maipu0-1San Martin Tucuman
ℹ️ H2H has weak real predictive power (small sample) — the model weights it lightly.
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