Every prediction is frozen and timestamped before kickoff, then graded after the match. Nothing is retouched: the record below is verifiable, not marketing.
71.4%
1X2 accuracy
42 match(es) graded
54.8%
Over/Under 2.5
52.4%
BTTS
0.473
Quality index
Calibrated. our probabilities deviate on average by just 1.1% from reality — measured on 5,236 predictions, recalibrated daily.
1132 more prediction(s) awaiting results · model dixon-coles-ts@0.1.0
Jul 12Argentina3-1Switzerland
pick 1
Bonus: historical performance
Performance recomputed over history (no future data) and compared to the market — useful while the verified record fills up.
The market stays the benchmark — our results speak for themselves.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The gold-standard proof of edge: do our value picks beat the bookmaker's closing line — the sharpest price on the market? A small positive edge is real; ignore anyone promising more.
Beat the close
62.5%
picks where our probability exceeds the closing line
Value picks
633
edge over 2% vs closing line
Actual hit rate
43.1%
Closing implied 46.1%
Edge (CLV)
-2.9 pts
actual − implied · positive = confirmed value
Reliability
When we say "70%", does it happen ~70% of the time? The closer the points hug the diagonal, the more reliable our probabilities.